Why 2026-27 Might be the Best Year for MBA Applications (Again!)
- 21 hours ago
- 7 min read
Last year, we published a hot take - that 2025 might be the best year to apply to MBA programs.
This year's application cycle might just surpass that.
Many of our predictions for this year came true in 2025-2026, with one big application trend: application growth at US schools saw a noticeable cooldown. We also saw how AI is reshaping MBA career paths and applicant goals, and how candidates are shaping their application strategy to respond to shifting school policies. Let's dive in.
Competition
Fewer international applicants
The reluctance of international applicants to go to the US is the major headline at the moment. Poets&Quants published a report highlighting a significant slowdown in MBA application volumes at several elite U.S. programs during the 2025-2026 cycle, with total volumes dropping 20% to 30% at many full-time programs.
This aligns with broader findings from the Graduate Management Admission Council (GMAC), whose recent Application Trends Survey shows uneven global demand. Some U.S. programs report softer international interest compared to prior years.
Some stats:
Overall international student enrollment in U.S. graduate programs declined by 5.9% in fall 2025, reversing prior gains.
Newly enrolled international students fell by about 17%, with visa delays and refusals cited as major factors.
These trends align with broader data showing a 19% decline in international student arrivals from August 2024 to August 2025.
There are multiple factors involved here: visa uncertainty, rising cost of attendance, employment risk in a tough job market, and Trump administration policies including bans on international students at certain schools, a push to eliminate DEI policies, and more social media vetting for student visas.
We’re not surprised. In R1 of this year, we published a blog and Reddit post titled “Why 2025 might be the best year ever for MBA applicants”. It seems like we were correct.
It’s too early to say for sure (we’re in interview season right now) but results so far look better than anticipated. After selecting “reasonably ambitious” schools, we had several candidates receive interviews to all schools they applied to, which is rare. This suggests an “easier” round.
Final admissions data for the current cycle has not been released yet, but GMAC trend reports consistently show that when applications decline, particularly in specific demographic pools, strong candidates may experience higher interview rates relative to prior cycles.
Historically, yield management dynamics also influence outcomes at schools like Wharton School, where team-based discussion (TBD) interviews are extended selectively. In lower-volume cycles, schools may interview a slightly larger percentage of applicants to maintain class targets.
Flight to the top
We’re also seeing a “flight to the top”. Every year, we meet applicants who say “An MBA is only worth it for me if I go to an M7”. We’re seeing more of that this year. Basically, it’s not a great market to leave a well-paying job.
GMAC survey data also indicates that highly selective programs often remain resilient even in down cycles. In times of economic uncertainty (like the current market), applicants tend to concentrate their bets on b-schools with the strongest brand value and employment outcomes.
This "flight to quality" is evident as more selective programs (top quartile) saw 52% experiencing application increases, compared to only 28% for less selective ones.
US vs. UK vs. EU
We also predicted that we’d see more MBA applications to non-US programs (ie. EU and UK). And just like in R1, most of our international clients in R2 added INSEAD, Oxford and/or LBS to their application packages. The clearest swing has been among Canadians – culturally comfortable in the US and UK/France, they’re pivoting to the latter.
Recent GMAC data suggests that European MBA programs have shown comparatively stronger performance in certain applicant segments.
From GMAC: “Visa and policy changes appear to be dampening international student interest in the United States, the United Kingdom, and Canada but fueling growth in Asia and Europe (outside of the U.K.). Schools should expand recruitment channels beyond traditional hubs while strengthening their domestic pipeline through targeted outreach to local universities, employers, and professional associations.”
GMAC regional reporting has shown that Europe has remained competitive in attracting globally mobile candidates for schools like INSEAD and HEC Paris, particularly those targeting consulting and finance roles with cross-border exposure.
Full-time MBA vs Other Formats
While U.S. schools reported a modest 1% decline overall, sharper drops occurred in executive, online, and part-time MBA formats (over 50% reported declines). This shift reflects applicants choosing career outcomes and industry links over course delivery in an uncertain job market, where leaving stable employment is riskier.
Round 3 is a credible option
In recent years, we have recommended against Round 3 applications. However, if applications are down in Round 1 and Round 2, applying in Round 3 is more attractive than in previous years, particularly for applicants targeting US schools ranked below Harvard/Stanford/Wharton where acceptance rates may improve due to unfilled spots from earlier rounds.
We’re also seeing more Round 2 applicants than usual request deferrals, which leaves more spaces in Round 2.
While R3 remains competitive (historically 0-20% acceptance at M7 schools), the reduced pool has made it a more credible option. Programs such as Columbia Business School and University of Chicago Booth School of Business manage rolling yield carefully, and in lower-volume years may extend meaningful consideration to strong Round 3 candidates, particularly domestic applicants or those with differentiated profiles who couldn’t apply earlier.
So, what next? ADP data shows 2025 as the worst year for job growth outside a recession in 25 years. MBA application numbers typically rise in a recession, as prospective students often pursue graduate education as a hedge against labor market risk. This makes spots more competitive. Our guess is that this is what will happen in the coming application cycle.
Essays
New goals
We’ve seen a noticeable spike in people aiming for “infrastructure Investing” as their post-MBA goal. Perhaps this new in-demand sector is linked to the headlines about countries fighting to secure access to resources and infrastructure. Consider global megatrends like digitalization, decarbonization, and demographic shifts requiring massive capital (over $7 trillion in the next decade for AI-related infrastructure alone).
Our advice: Make sure this goal is credible based on your past experience – like other PE funds, infrastructure funds want candidates with experience in IB, preferably rotation programs. Check out this Roast, where we discuss an infrastructure applicant.
Family business
Family business applicants (who have guaranteed job offers from that business) have historically done well in MBA applications.
Family enterprises generate $8.02 trillion in annual revenue and are projected to comprise 40% of the world's top economic entities by 2025. So, applicants from these enterprises often excel in MBA admissions due to built-in networks, leadership experience, and post-graduation job security. That improves the schools’ career outcomes, and therefore their employment reports. which align with schools' emphasis on career outcomes. Family business graduates achieve CEO or high-leadership roles quickly. Besides this, AdComs also value clarity of impact, especially when candidates can articulate governance reform, operational scaling, or international expansion strategies within established firms.
Unsurprisingly, that advantage is becoming more pronounced with the uncertain job market. We’ve seen several family business applicants punch above their weight this round. It’s not a statistically significant number, but noticeable.
AI in MBA Applications
In Round 1, we saw lots of former FAANG engineers writing career essays containing post-MBA goals being to “pivot to join or establish an AI startup that disrupts industry XYZ”. But this narrative is becoming tired, and the bar for that story to work seems to be getting higher. Schools want to know: How exactly will you implement AI?
AI is reshaping MBA career paths, with employment in specialist roles projected to grow. We're also seeing more programs emphasize AI integration in curricula and focusing on real-world applications like decision-making and problem-solving.
And speaking of schools’ positions on AI, they’re embracing it in their curricula, but becoming clearer about their policies of using AI in essays (use it for research only, basically). But candidates still use it thinking they won’t get caught. Error. We’re also seeing AI spitting out wrong answers, particularly around numbers like admission deadlines and GMAT stats.
Application Strategy
LOR leniency
Historically, schools have offered some leeway for LORs that are submitted late. We try to avoid these cases with our clients, for obvious reasons. But this year, due to circumstances beyond our control, several letters of recommendation were submitted late by our clients. Despite being late, these were accepted by schools (CBS and LBS). Always confirm with the school, e.g., via phone or email, and document any agreements. Formal policies may vary.
GMAT/GRE waivers
Conversely, some applicants submitted GMAT/GRE waiver requests within the guided timeframe, but received responses only ONE DAY before the submission deadline. That would have been nerve wracking for those candidates, and certainly another factor that should encourage you to front-load your application work plan. Waivers require separate essays demonstrating quantitative readiness, and requests must precede your application (e.g., 3-4 weeks prior at some schools).
Unstable portals
School portals have been going down. We always tell our clients not to leave their applications to the last minute for this reason. In Round 2, several clients reported that LBS had issues on their portal. We’ve also seen issues with language test waivers (uploads not being required etc).
Schools generally communicate extensions when systemic technical issues occur, but as an applicant, you bear responsibility for submitting early enough to avoid those complications and reaching out to the school for resolutions.
Scholarship negotiations
Some schools continue to be open to negotiating scholarships and matching competitors they deem as “peers” (Kellogg, Booth). But other schools have been surprisingly reluctant to engage in any negotiation (Wharton).
Approach professionally. Emphasize competing offers from similar-tier schools, but expect varying responsiveness; no guarantees exist. We wrote a blog about how to negotiate scholarships at your target schools here.
Want to get started on your MBA applications this year? Get in touch for a free chat.
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